- VanEck CEO says quantum risks could force firms to rethink long-term Bitcoin exposure.
- Bitcoin OGs examine Zcash as privacy concerns rise across transparent blockchain networks.
- Experts flag 2026–2028 as a key window for post-quantum upgrades on major blockchains.
Bitcoin’s long-term security debate intensified after VanEck CEO Jan van Eck warned that advances in quantum computing could eventually force major institutions to reassess their exposure. Speaking on CNBC, Van Eck said the investment firm would reconsider its position if quantum risks break Bitcoin’s core technological thesis.
His remarks revived discussions around encryption durability, on-chain visibility, and the growing interest in privacy-protected alternatives such as Zcash. The warning surfaced as researchers and developers published new timelines for when quantum computers may run algorithms capable of threatening today’s cryptography.
This combination of institutional caution and technical debate has made quantum security a renewed focal point for both Bitcoin analysts and protocol designers.
VanEck Flags Two Core Risks: Encryption and Privacy
Van Eck said the internal debate within the Bitcoin community now centers on two issues: whether Bitcoin’s current encryption can withstand the arrival of fault-tolerant quantum computers and whether its transparent transaction model offers adequate privacy as analytics tools improve.
“We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken,” he said, emphasizing that the question is not hypothetical inside the community. According to him, longtime Bitcoin holders are studying whether wallet-level visibility could create long-term exposure for users who require confidentiality.
This shift in sentiment has pushed some early adopters toward Zcash, a token designed with zero-knowledge proofs and optional shielded transactions. Van Eck noted that several “Bitcoin OGs” are evaluating Zcash due to its stronger privacy model, contrasting with Bitcoin’s transparent ledger, where funds can be tracked from one address to another.
Industry commentary aligns with this shift. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently argued that privacy-preserving assets could prove more resilient during periods of constrained dollar liquidity, describing Zcash as well-positioned under such conditions.
Quantum Predictions Add Pressure Ahead of 2026
The wider debate accelerated after recent projections from leading researchers. Scott Aaronson, Director of the Quantum Information Center at the University of Texas, said it is possible a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of running Shor’s algorithm could appear before the next U.S. presidential election.
Days later, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned that Elliptic Curve Cryptography could face real quantum pressure before the 2028 election cycle. Both comments intensified the industry’s focus on a possible 2026–2028 window for early quantum-capable systems. Buterin urged developers to adopt quantum-resistant algorithms within four years, citing the long lead time required for blockchain upgrades.
However, cryptography specialists maintain that real-world threat levels remain distant. Research from MASTR shows that breaking the ECDSA signature scheme used by Bitcoin and Ethereum would require roughly 2,300 logical qubits, 10¹²–10¹³ quantum operations, and, after error correction, hundreds of millions to billions of noisy qubits. Current hardware remains at least four orders of magnitude below those requirements.
Despite the extended timeline, major networks have begun preparing. Ethereum developers are studying STARKs and Winternitz signatures for post-quantum protection. Bitcoin researchers have proposed Dilithium, Falcon, and SPHINCS+ as potential alternatives. Van Eck’s comments reflect this industry-wide effort to understand the upgrade path before quantum machines become viable.
Four-Year Halving Cycle Adds Another Layer to the Debate
Van Eck also linked the current sentiment shift to Bitcoin’s established halving-cycle behavior. He said the asset has historically entered a downturn every four years after block rewards are reduced. The next cycle begins in 2026, which he described as a potentially weak year based on past performance.
Data from previous cycles shows that Bitcoin’s rally in the current phase is smaller than in earlier periods, leading some investors to expect a more moderate correction. He clarified that this positioning reflects routine risk management rather than a judgment on Bitcoin’s viability. The firm is not exiting the asset but continues to evaluate whether future encryption or privacy demands will require reassessment.
What Comes Next
Bitcoin developers now face pressure to determine whether post-quantum upgrades can be implemented before high-capacity quantum systems emerge. At the same time, privacy discussions continue driving attention toward Zcash and other zero-knowledge networks.
Van Eck’s remarks signal that institutional holders are watching both trends closely. The next major milestones will come as researchers refine quantum timelines and developers finalize candidate algorithms for long-term protection.
