Key Highlights:
- Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas says ETF approvals for Solana, XRP and others are “really 100% now” after rule changes at the SEC.
- According to Polymarket, XRP ETF approval odds exceed 99%, indicating a strong bullish momentum in the market.
- In October, 6 XRP ETF applications are scheduled to go through the SEC, starting with Grayscale on October 18.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas notes that there has been a change in regulatory standards such that any approval of multiple spot crypto ETFs is practically guaranteed. He now places the approval odds for Solana, XRP, Litecoin, Cardano, Dogecoin, and Hedera ETFs at 100%. His statement suggests that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may not be able to delay the launch any longer.
Analyst Says Crypto ETF Approval Odds Are At 100%
“Honestly the odds are really 100% now. Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their ‘clock’ meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance. And they just submitted amendment #4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready,” Balchunas posted on X as he noted how fast decisions might be made.
Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the General Listing Standards that allow the exchanges to list commodity ETFs in the form of commodity-based ETFs without necessarily having to make an individual approval. Consequently, asset managers would no longer be required to file 19b-4 proposals, which was a bottleneck in the past to receive the clearance. In its place, the emphasis has now been put exclusively on S-1 registration statements, which issuers need to revise prior to the commencement of trading.
The move has already caused some applicants to revise their S-1 filings, with Solana filings being some of the latest to revise. Analysts consider this to be a good omen that issuers are getting ready to enter the final phase of the regulatory procedure.
Honestly the odds are really 100% now. Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their “clock” meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance. And they just submitted amendment #4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready. https://t.co/5JtfTm82Wi
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 29, 2025
Even as Balchunas focused on certainty, other Bloomberg analysts, including James Seyffart, also expressed timing problems that were related to the likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown. He argued though, that the structural changes proposed by the SEC render it virtually unavoidable on completion of the administrative hurdles.
The agency has gone further as to request applicants to recall their now-outdated 19b-4 filings. This is an unprecedented move that in essence, eliminates one of the most established procedural barriers in the crypto ETF race.
Critical Deadlines for Solana, XRP, Litecoin ETFs
The focus is now on October when the SEC is set to discuss a series of spot XRP ETF applications. This is the deadline by which Grayscale will submit their submission, and will be followed by 21Shares, Canary Capital, Bitwise, and CoinShares with the week culminating with WisdomTree reviewing them on October 24. These rulings are likely to provide a precedent for the treatment of other crypto ETFs in the future, including those tracking Solana and Litecoin.
The regulatory updates have been responded to swiftly by market sentiment. Based on the forecasts posted on the Polymarket prediction market platform, the odds of XRP ETF approval are above 99% at the moment, meaning that investors believe the clearance is a foregone conclusion. These expectations have even bled into price expectations, where independent analysts have said that several tokens could soar once trading starts.
Greater institutional participation is also being brought into focus by the crypto market watchers. Recently, reports emerged of a French financial executive having bought approximately $48 million XRP that analysts believe is part of a larger trend of large-scale buying before possible ETF launches.
The blockchain ecosystem underlying XRP has also developed, and it has been upgraded to permit tokenized swaps associated with institutional-grade products, including the BUIDL fund provided by BlackRock or the VBill instrument provided by VanEck. These improvements are considered to be a preparation to subsequent adoption in case the ETF approvals come to fruition.
Investor expectations are growing as the ETF schedule becomes tighter. Nate Geraci, the president of ETF Store, noted that the upcoming few weeks will be “enormous” for crypto ETFs. This period will offer a crucial window for these ETFs, with the rulings of regulators potentially redefining the future of Solana, XRP, Litecoin, and other digital currencies that seek an exchange-traded fund equivalent.
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