Ethereum is experiencing increased selling pressure since its most recent rejection at the key resistance levels, and on-chain and derivatives data suggest that risks are increasing. Failure to regain momentum may pull ETH to the next level of support of $2,750, which analysts caution is the next level of support.
Ethereum Price Risks Major Decline
Ethereum exchanged at approximately $3,941.45 on September 26 between key bands of valuation that Glassnode monitored via its MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. The framework contrasts the market price of Ethereum to the realized price of Ethereum, which is an average cost basis of all coins in the market and calculates multiple deviation that in many cases, serve as dynamic support and resistance.
Ethereum $ETH must break $4,841 to reverse the downtrend and aim for $5,864. Fail, and a correction to $2,750 comes into play. pic.twitter.com/ltgOtwXAWu
— Ali (@ali_charts) September 26, 2025
The chart provided by analyst Ali Martinez shows that the ETH price has a crucial obstacle at the +1.0σ band at $4,841. Any successful breakout beyond this would indicate the reversal of the overall downward trend and maybe the way to the next deviation band of about $5,864. Nonetheless, Martinez warned that any rejection in this zone may subject Ethereum to a steep fall. The most important downside indicator is the value of approximately $2,750 or the -0.5σ band, which has been supporting bear phases historically.
Glassnode data has been used to confirm that Ethereum has a realized price of approximately $2,436 and that most of the holders are still making profits in their current positions. However, the deviation bands indicate that extreme levels in a market tend to lead to sharp retracements, especially when the resistance lines keep on refuting upward trends.
Derivatives Data Suggest Caution
Derivatives markets are becoming a part of the risks. CryptoQuant data demonstrated that Ethereum open interest has been reset to one of the most severe since 2024. The abrupt rush followed a flood of forced liquidation, which cleared out leveraged positions. The existing open interest is about $55 billion, according to Coinglass.
Positions to the tune of $282 million were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with longs taking the brunt at $232.69 million against short liquidations of $49.39 million. Such resets are seen by analysts as a mixed message: on the one hand, the unwind of leverage can de-foam the market, however, on the other hand, they may indicate poor momentum when new inflows cannot offset liquidated positions.
In the meantime, institutional flows are becoming stressed. According to statistics by Farside Investors, Ethereum ETFs have been recording net outflows in the past five sales in a row, which indicates declining demand. The total outflows on September 19 were $47.8 million, then $76 million on September 22, and $140.8 million on September 23. The most recent meetings carried the trend as $79.4 million was withdrawn on September 24, and $251.2 million on September 25, the highest daily net withdrawals of this period.
A number of issuers such as Fidelity, Bitwise and Grayscale have experienced sustained redemptions which are contrary to the positive trend that was at the beginning of the month, when daily inflows stood at over 400 million on September 12. The move is indicative of a declining investor interest in Ethereum-based exchange-traded products following an early surge of excitement.
Having so much ETF redemptions, leveraged position flushes, and rejection at the technical level of $4,841 leaves a precarious near-term picture. Market observers are paying close attention to whether Ethereum can stabilize above the $4,155-4,200 range or not, or it may fall even more.
Until now, the critical battle lines are pointed out using the deviation pricing bands. The breakout from $4,841 would put ETH on a path to possible clearing to $5,864, although another failure would substantiate the bearish forecast, and the defense level at $2,750 would be the critical level.
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